KEGAGALAN INTELIJEN AS DALAM KASUS WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IRAK 2003
Keywords:
Kegagalan Intelijen, Senjata Pemusnah Massal (WMD), Irak, Amerika Serikat, Penilaian AncamanAbstract
Abstract: Invasi Amerika Serikat ke Irak pada tahun 2003 didasarkan pada keyakinan bahwa rezim Saddam Hussein memiliki program Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang menyebabkan kegagalan intelijen AS dalam menilai keberadaan WMD serta pengaruhnya terhadap legitimasi invasi Irak. Metode yang digunakan adalah penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus melalui analisis literatur, laporan investigasi, dan dokumen resmi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kegagalan intelijen dipengaruhi oleh keterbatasan sumber informasi, bias kognitif analis, asumsi yang keliru, serta politisasi intelijen dalam proses pengambilan keputusan. Pembahasan mengungkap bahwa informasi yang lemah dan ambigu ditafsirkan sebagai bukti keberadaan WMD sehingga memperkuat narasi ancaman Irak. Simpulan penelitian ini adalah bahwa kegagalan intelijen AS merupakan hasil interaksi antara kesalahan analitis dan tekanan politik yang menghasilkan penilaian ancaman yang tidak akurat serta menjadi dasar justifikasi invasi Irak tahun 2003.
References
Bamford, J. (2004). A pretext for war: 9/11, Iraq, and the abuse of America's intelligence agencies.
Doubleday.
Betts, Richard K. 1978. “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable.” World Politics 31(1): 61–89. doi:10.2307/2009967
Bilmes, L. J., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2008). The three trillion dollar war: The true cost of the Iraq conflict.
W. W. Norton & Company.
Boyle, F. A. (2004). Destroying World Order: U.S. Imperialism in the Middle East Before and After September 11th. Clarity Press.
Burnham, G., Lafta, R., Doocy, S., & Roberts, L. (2006). Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross-sectional cluster sample survey. The Lancet, 368(9545), https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9
Bush, G. W. (2004, February 6). Fact sheet: Commission on the intelligence capabilities of the United States regarding weapons of mass destruction. The American Presidency Project (Gerhard Peters & John T. Woolley, Eds.). https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/fact-sheet-commission-the-intelligence-capabiliti es-the-united-states-regarding-weapons
Council on Foreign Relations. (2006). Intelligence, policy, and war: Iraq. https://www.cfr.org/event/intelligence-policy-and-war-iraq-0
Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. (2005). Unclassified version of the report of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States regarding weapons of mass destruction: Chapter 1—Case study: Iraq. U.S. Government Publishing Office. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-WMD/pdf/GPO-WMD-1-6.pdf
Diamond, L. (2005). Squandered victory: The American occupation and the bungled effort to bring democracy to Iraq. Times Books.
Farhi, F. (2010). Review of Why intelligence fails: Lessons from the Iranian revolution and the Iraq war, by Robert Jervis. Cornell University Press. https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/journals/irfa/v1i4/f_0021758_18004.pdf
Ferguson, M. P. (2023). Misinformed: Implications of Foreign Influence on the Information Environment that Launched Operation Iraqi Freedom. Expeditions with MCUP, 2023. https://doi.org/10.36304/expwmcup.2023.07
Freedman, L.D. (2004). War in Iraq: Selling the Threat. Survival, 46, 49 - 7.
Gupta, Sanjay. 2008. “The Doctrine of Pre-Emptive Strike: Application and Implications During the Administration of President George W. Bush.” International Political Science Review 29(2): 181–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512107085611
Hersh, S. M. (2003, May 12). Selective intelligence. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2003/05/12/selective-intelligence
Heuer, R. J. (1999). Psychology of intelligence analysis. CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence. Hinnebusch, Raymond. 2007. “The US Invasion of Iraq: Explanations and Implications.” Critique:
Critical Middle Eastern Studies 16(3): 209–28. https://doi.org/10.1080/10669920701616443 Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, Pub. L. No. 108-458, 118 Stat. 3638.
(2004). https://www.congress.gov/bill/108th-congress/senate-bill/2845
Iraq Survey Group. (2004). Comprehensive report of the special advisor to the DCI on Iraq's WMD (Duelfer Report). U.S. Government Publishing Office. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-DUELFERREPORT/pdf/GPO-DUELFERREPO RT-3.pdf
Jervis, R. (2006). Reports, politics, and intelligence failures: The case of Iraq. Journal of Strategic Studies, 29(1), 3-52. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390600566282
Kellner, Douglas. 2004. “Preemptive Strikes and the War on Iraq: A Critique of Bush Administration Unilateralism and Militarism.” New Political Science 26(3): 417–40. https://doi.org/10.1080/0739314042000251342
Mistry, D. (2011). The Iraq war and intelligence failures. In L. K. Johnson (Ed.), The Oxford handbook of national security intelligence. Oxford University Press.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Aliya Shabira Arifin, Anindya Narda Yasmina, Anisa Sekarayu Yuwana, Cindy Rizky Az Zahra, Agnes Sihombing, Abigail Febrianti, Ivandra Solihin (Author)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

